The 2024 Season In Review
The pursuit of excellence was suspended.
It was not the season that we as fans wanted or expected—even for those who felt apprehensive about OU’s first season in the SEC. A record of 6-6 simply is unacceptable. All the more so as it was marred by struggling winning performances and inept losing ones all in route to a failure to reach basically any season goals.
From the start the results were disappointing even with three straight wins. The offense was concerning to say the least. And it got worse before it . . . stabilized. It never really got better. Plagued by injuries, we hoped that was the extent of the problem. But as the season wore on, it became clear injuries only revealed in sharp relief the true underlying problem—a broken offense. From strategy to play calling, from player development to personnel decision, nothing was working.
Disappointingly but out of necessity we parted ways with offensive coordinator Seth Littrell midseason signaling officially that 2024 would be a rebuilding through reorganization year. In other words, a lost season.
Fortunately the defense shined in what will likely always be an underappreciated performance. If you were to adjust defensive stats for opponent quality and same-team offensive effectiveness, I would estimate the 2024 defense would rank in OU’s all-time top 10. The defense certainly is pursuing excellence.
At the start of the season, I wrote on the pursuit of excellence with a hint that the forecasters were predicting that for OU this would not be a season of such. The betting markets were predicting a 7-5 or 8-4 season (7.5 wins to be exact). In no way does that imply reaching the standard at Oklahoma.
I argued that 8-4 might be appropriate (meaning acceptable) given some conditions. The necessary context was the quality of the opponents, the level of competitiveness demonstrated by the Sooners, injuries and other fortunate/unfortunate circumstances, and demonstration of improvement. I generalized this in two questions:
Are you where you should be?
Are you headed in the right direction?
The answers to both in 2024 were “NO!” and “Maybe”. I can already hear the problems with my second answer. Hear me out.
At the start the season the answer to the second question was undoubtedly “No”. This is even adjusting for injuries and any other apologetics one my conjure up—and I gave my share. But the answer to the question became murkier as the season progressed and changes were made. Putting in Michael Hawkins was a false signal as our woes extended well beyond one person at quarterback. Making the change at OC was more significant, and it will be a make or break outcome for Brent Venables.
In determining whether we are headed in the right direction, we simply can’t really know at this point. As I wrote in that original piece,
Truth be told, we won’t really know this until after all is said and done—meaning after this season is wrapped up and probably after future seasons have transpired.
So how should we feel about being 6-6? Well, let’s start by considering what 8-4 would have felt like—the measure that the betting markets were telling us was (slightly) above reasonable expectation.
What if we had pulled off two wins from the three games against Tennessee, Ole Miss, and Missouri? Missouri was basically in the bag before we reached into the bag to find an astonishing way to lose. Ole Miss was close enough to be easily conceivable—we led at halftime and looked the better team. And Tennessee just takes avoiding a few turnovers in scoring position. In that scenario we would have finished 8-4 without meaningfully being different from where we stand today. Were we there, should we feel different?
I think we would and should—substantiating the negative sentiment of a 6-6 record. It is (and in the 8-4 hypothetical would be) true that the rest of the schedule and the full body of work fell well short of something for Sooners to be proud of. We lacked signature performances save against Alabama and had a couple of big letdowns. Keep in mind that as tremendous as the win over Alabama was, if we had been 7-3 going into that game, it would not have been so remarkable. And my scenario has us at 7-3 but basically being the same team through and through.
Still, there is a difference between winning and losing. And winning those games to get to 8-4 even if done by the skin of our teeth would deserve positive recognition.
Consider my framework from the prior piece:
My goal this year is not too different than in any other year:
Win the games you should win
Be competitive in the games that should be challenging (winning your share)
The difference between years always hinges upon how many games fall into that latter category. Beyond that, a season of achieved excellence means finding a way to be the better team when it was in doubt.
All things considered, I think we did achieve the first condition. But we fell well short on the second. The 8-4 hypothetical is apropos because that is what “competitive in the games that should be challenging (winning your share)” looks like.
It was a letdown season. The kind that can leave program supporters wondering if we are where we should be and headed in the right direction. Clearly that is on everyone’s mind. We wish now for that 8-4 season, which would not be championship pursuing and falls short of long-term expectations. Going into next year, that might not be enough.
As the new offensive coordinator and staff is announced soon—perhaps in the next few days—we will get another glimpse at what the future holds. This likely won’t tell us much since on paper it will fit the bill. The proof will come next season as we learn through results whether or not we are back on track in pursuit of excellence.
PS, By the way, what was Vegas seeing to put us at 7.5 total wins? Did the larger betting world know Seth Littrell would likely fail? It couldn’t be the injuries as the over/under total was determined long before the tally of injuries developed. I think the answer is a combination of underestimating how bad our offense would be (bettors suspected it would be better) and underestimating how good our defense would be.